کاهش تورم ماهانه کل از ۱۲.۲ درصد در خرداد به ۴.۶ درصد در تیرماه و تورم ماهانه اقلام خوراکی از ۲۵.۴ در خرداد به ۵.۷ درصد در تیر ماه، گویای پایان شوک تورمی ناشی از حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی بود.
گزارش تورم تیر ماه مرکز آمار امروز منتشر شد. بسیاری از تحلیلگران اقصادی از ماه گذشته تا کنون منتظر انتشار این گزارش بودند تا ببینند آیا اثر تورمی حذف رانت ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی مطابق وعده دولت به پایان رسیده یا همچنان ادامه دارد؟ چرا که پیش از این و در گزارش تورم خرداد ماه مرکز آمار، اثر تورمی حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی مشخص شده بود چرا که نرخ تورم ماهانه به عنوان سریعترین نشانگر تورم از ۳.۵ درصد در اردیبهشت به ۱۲.۲ درصد در خرداد افزایش یافته بود. به طور خاص تورم اقلام خوراکی که مرکز ثقل تورم ناشی از حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ بود، پس از اجرای طرح مردمی سازی یارانهها از ۳.۳ درصد به ۲۵.۴ درصد افزایش یافت. جهش تورم ماهانه اقلام خوراکی از اردیبهشت به خرداد، تمام اثر حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی اقلام خوراکی اساسی (گندم و ...) را نشان داد. از همین رو بسیاری از تحلیلگران منتظر انتشار گزارش تورم تیر ماه بودند تا ببینند آیا رشد تورم ماهانه همچنان ادامه یافته یا مطابق وعده دولت اثر آن تنها در خرداد خلاصه شده است؟
گزارش امروز مرکز آمار نشان داد تورم ماهانه که به نوعی حسگر آنی تورم است، به ارقام پیش از حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی بازگشته و در نتیجه پیش بینی دولت مبنی بر موقتی بودن شوک تورمی این طرح، درست بوده است. بر اساس این گزارش تورم اقلام خوراکی از ۲۵.۴ درصد در خرداد ماه به ۵.۷ درصد در تیر ماه کاهش یافت. کاهش حدود ۲۰ واحد درصدی تورم اقلام خوراکی از خرداد تا تیر ماه، به وضوح پایان اثر تورمی حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ را نشان میدهد. همچنین تورم اقلام غیرخوراکی از ۴.۴ درصد در خرداد به ۳.۸ درصد در تیر ماه کاهش یافت. در نهایت تورم ماهانه کل از ۱۲.۲ درصد در خرداد به ۴.۶ درصد در تیر ماه کاهش یافت. همچنین در تیر ماه سال جاری تورم نقطه به نقطه معادل ۵۴ درصد و تورم سالانه معادل ۴۰.۵ درصد به ثبت رسید.
رد ادعای «تداوم تورم» و «سرایت تورم» در گزارش تورم تیر
پیش از حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی، مدافعان سیاست ارز ۴۲۰۰ از دو اتفاق عمده درباره تورم کشور پس از حذف آن سخن میگفتند. اولین ادعای موافقان ارز ۴۲۰۰ «تداوم تورم» در صورت حذف ارز ترجیحی بود. مدافعان سیاست ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی در مخالفت با طرح دولت برای حذف رانت ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی اعلام میکردند در صورت حذف این ارز، تورم سالانه به طور پیوسته افزایش مییابد و پس از چند ماه تورم سه رقمی میشود. غلط بودن این ادعای مدافعان سیاست ارز ۴۲۰۰ اما بیش از یک ماه طول نکشید؛ چرا که گزارش تورم تیر ماه نشان داد نرخ تورم ماهانه در ماه پس از حذف رانت ۴۲۰۰ تومانی به ارقام پیش از حذف بازگشته و خبری از تداوم رشد تورم و سه رقمی شدن آن نخواهد بود.
ادعای دیگر مدافعان سیاست ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی، سرایت تورم به اقلام غیرمشمول ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی بود. آنها مدعی بودند در صورتی که دولت اقدام به قطع تخصیص ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی به کالاهای مشمول کند، تورم ناشی از رشد قیمت این کالاها به دیگر کالاها نیز سرایت کرده و به اقلام مشمول ارز ترجیحی خلاصه نخواهد شد. گزارش جدید مرکز آمار از تورم تیر ماه اما نشان داد این ادعای منتقدان هم خطا بود؛ چرا که تورم اقلام غیرخوراکی نه تنها در خرداد ماه که ماه بروز اثر تورمی حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی بود، بلکه در تیر ماه هم خبری از سرایت تورم به اقلام غیرخوراکی نبوده است.
چشم انداز تورم در ماههای پیش رو
با توجه به پایان تدریجی شوک تورمی حذف ارز ۴۲۰۰ تومانی، اکنون مولفههای پولی مهمترین عامل باقی مانده تورم در کشور هستند. نقدینگی و به ویژه پایه پولی در شرایط فعلی اقتصاد ایران، عامل عمده تورم بالای فعلی هستند که کنترل آنها، کاهش تورم در ماههای آینده را تضمین میکند. این موضوع البته از ابتدا مورد توجه دولت بوده به طوری که دولت پس از واکسیناسیون عمومی و کنترل کرونا، مهمترین اولویت خود را کنترل تورم عنوان کرده است. دولت در مسیر کنترل رشد شاخصهای پولی البته تا کنون موفق بوده به طوری که آمارهای بانک مرکزی هم از کند شدن آهنگ رشد نقدینگی و پایه پولی در ماههای اخیر حکایت دارد. در همین رابطه به طور خاص کند شدن سرعت رشد پایه پولی در ماههای اخیر از جمله نشانههای توفیق دولت در مسیر کنترل تورم در ماههای آینده است. کاهش سرعت رشد پایه پولی از ۹.۲ درصد در سه ماهه ابتدایی سال گذشته به ۶ درصد در سه ماهه ابتدایی سال جاری، جدیدترین شاهد از میسر صحیح دولت در کنترل تورم است. تداوم این مسیر و کاهش بیشتر سرعت رشد پایه پولی و نقدینگی، تورم را در نیمه دوم سال ناگزیر از کاهشی شدن میکند.
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)
لینک مطلب:
https://www.eranico.com/fa/content/152955