آیا اکنون زمان مناسبی برای خرید بیت کوین است؟ تحلیل بیت کوین امروز
تا سالها قبل سرمایهگذاری روی بازار ملک، طلا و حتی خودرو در میان مردم محبوبیت بالایی داشت و بسیاری از افراد، پول مازاد خود را در این بازارها سرمایهگذاری میکردند. با ورود بیت کوین به عرصه اقتصاد جهانی در سال 2008، بازار مالی جدیدی شکل گرفت که توجه بسیاری از افراد به آن جلب شد. رشدهای چند هزار درصدی در این بازار مالی نوظهور، مردم را حیرت زده کرد، به همین دلیل افراد زیادی تصمیم گرفتند سرمایههای خود را وارد بازار ارزهای دیجیتال کنند.
با ریزش بازار بورس در سال 99 و شکلگیری اولین صرافیهای ارز دیجیتال ایرانی، سرمایهگذاران ایرانی تصمیم گرفتند پولهای خود را به بازار کریپتوکارنسی بیاورند تا بلکه از این راه ضرر آنها در بورس جبران شود. این سوال که آیا اکنون فرصت مناسبی برای خرید بیت کوین محسوب میشود یا نه، سوالی است که ذهن بسیاری از سرمایه گذاران را درگیر کرده و قصد داریم در ادامه به آن جواب دهیم.
زمان مناسب خرید بیت کوین را چگونه تشخیص دهیم؟
تمامی بازارهای مالی برای سرمایهگذاری مناسب هستند. اما اینکه یک معاملهگر بتواند نقطه ورود و خروج از بازار را تشخیص دهد، هنری است که شاید هر کسی آن را بلد نباشد. برای مثال در بازار بورس تهران برخی از افرد سال 98 اقدام به خرید سهام کردند و با تشخیص درست زمان خروج از بازار، سودهای کلانی به جیب زدند. برای تشخیص زمان مناسب خرید بیت کوین میتوانیم از تحلیل بنیادی و تکنیکال استفاده کنیم. ابتدا از منظر بنیادی بیت کوین را مورد بررسی قرار میدهیم و در ادامه سعی میکنیم با استفاده از تحلیل تکنیکال، زمان برگشت قیمت این کوین را تشخیص دهیم.
قیمت بیت کوین با شاخص S&P 500 همبستگی زیادی دارد. اگر اخبار را به دقت دنبال کنید، معمولا بعد از انتشار اخبار افزایش نرخ بهره بانکی در آمریکا، شاخصهای سهام از جمله شاخص S&P 500 کاهش مییابند و بلافاصله قیمت بیت کوین نیز همراه با آنها ریزشی میشود. اتفاقی که در سال 2022 بارها شاهد آن بودیم.
با توجه به جنگ روسیه و اوکراین، نرخ تورم در سراسر جهان افزایش یافته و همین موضوع بانکهای مرکزی کشورهای بزرگی از جمله آمریکا را وادار کرده که نرخ بهره را افزایش دهند. افزایش نرخ بهره باعث میشود که مردم تمایل چندانی به سرمایهگذاری در بازارهای مالی مثل بازار سهام و کریپتو نداشته باشند و همین موضوع فشار فروش در این بازارها را افزایش میدهد. تا زمانی که این چرخه متوقف نشود میتوان انتظار داشت که قیمت بیت کوین به همراه سهام شرکتهای بزرگ دنیا به روند کاهشی خود ادامه دهد.
البته کارشناسان معتقدند با کاهش تاثیر جنگ روسیه و اوکراین در سال 2023 و بهبود اقتصاد جهانی، میتوانیم شاهد افزایش شاخصهای سهام و بیت کوین در سال آینده میلادی باشیم. به همین دلیل برخی سرمایهگذاران باهوش سال 2022 را فرصتی برای ورود به بازار ارز دیجیتال و سال 2023 را فرصتی برای خروج از بازار کریپتو میدانند. این استراتژی دقیقا مطابق با این جمله معروف است که در زمان نزول قیمتها بخرید و در زمان بالا رفتن قیمتها بفروشید.
تحلیل تکنیکال بیت کوین
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برای تحلیل بیت کوین امروز 16 مهر 1401، وارد سایت tradingview میشویم و جفت ارز BTC/USD را جست و جو میکنیم. در تایم فریم هفتگی قیمت بیت کوین میانگین 200 روزه خود را از دست داده است. بهعلاوه، کف کانال صعودی بلند مدت بیت کوین در هفتههای گذشته شکسته شده که همزمانی این اتفاق با کاهش قیمت به زیر میانگین 200 روزه، میتواند نشان دهنده ادامه روند نزولی این کوین در هفتههای آتی باشد.
در تصویر زیر تایم فریم نمودار، به روزانه تغییر پیدا کرده است. قیمت بیت کوین در تایم فریم روزانه امیدوارکنندهتر به نظر میرسد. با توجه به تصویر زیر، محدوده 18500 دلار محدودهای حمایتی برای قیمت محسوب میشود. همچنین سطح 20300 و 22400 دلار، دو مقاومت مهم بیت کوین در تایم فریم روزانه هستند که از اهمیت بالایی برخوردارند. در صورتی که قیمت بتواند سطح مقاومتی 20300 دلار را بشکند، هدف اول آن سطح 22400 دلار است. اما در غیر این صورت اگر قیمت تا سطح 18500 دلار کاهش یابد و این سطح را از دست بدهد، احتمالا شاهد کاهش بیشتر قیمت تا محدودههای پایینتر باشیم. اتفاقی که باعث جذابتر شدن خرید بیت کوین برای سرمایهگذاران میشود.
خرید بیت کوین از صرافی امن
درصورتی که تصمیم به خرید بیت کوین دارید، اولین قدم ثبت نام در صرافی ارز دیجیتال است. در حال حاضر تعداد زیادی صرافی ارز دیجیتال ایرانی و خارجی در حال فعالیت هستند که میتوانید یکی از آنها را برای ثبت نام انتخاب کنید. این صرافیها در مواردی از جمله نرخ کارمزد، تعداد ارزهای لیست شده، رابطه کاربری و غیره تفاوتهایی دارند.
بهصورت کلی صرافیهای ارز دیجیتال ایرانی برای خرید و فروش، امنتر از صرافی های خارجی هستند. دلیل این موضوع هم تحریمهای بینالمللی علیه معاملهگران ایرانی است که طبق آن اکثر صرافی های معتبر خارجی، ایران را در لیست سیاه خود قرار دادهاند. البته استفاده از برنامههای تغییردهنده IP میتواند راه حل مناسبی برای حل این مشکل باشد اما با توجه به وضعیت نامساعد اینترنت ایران، نمیتوان به این برنامهها اطمینان کرد، زیرا در صورتی که در حین معامله برنامه تغییردهنده IP خاموش شود، حسابتان بلوکه شده و به دردسر خواهید افتاد. همچنین برای خرید ارز دیجیتال با ریال تنها میتوانید از صرافیهای ایرانی استفاده کنید، زیرا اکسچنجهای خارجی از ریال پشتیبانی نمیکنند.
در میان صرافیهای ایرانی در حال حاضر بیش از 20 اکسچنج در حال فعالیت هستند که نرخ کارمزد در آنها حدودا 0.3٪ تا 0.4٪ است. صرافی ارز دیجیتال ارزپایا با نرخ کارمزد 0.2٪ و پشتیبانی از بیش از 65 ارز دیجیتال محبوب، گزینه مناسبی برای خرید و فروش بیت کوین و سایر رمز ارزها محسوب میشود. همینطور مدت زمان احراز هویت در این صرافی برخلاف سایر اکسچنجهای ایرانی کمتر از 1 ساعت است. با این وجود اگر هنگام ثبت نام و احراز هویت به مشکلی برخورد کردید، میتوانید از پشتیبانی 24 ساعته صرافی ارزپایا به صورت تلفن، تیکت یا چت آنلاین استفاده کنید.
لینک مطلب:
https://www.eranico.com/fa/content/155608