رئیس کل بانک مرکزی درخصوص وضعیت اقتصاد کلان کشور گفت: با نرخهای حاصله در سالهای اخیر و به ویژه درسالجاری تأکید می شود که فشارهای اقتصادی ناشی از تحریم ها مدیریت شده است.
فرزین با بیان اینکه اقتصاد ایران سال ۱۴۰۱ را با طیف وسیعی از تکانههای مغایر و مساعد اقتصادی و سیاسی پشت سر گذاشت، تصریح کرد: در حوزه متغیرهای پولی سال ۱۴۰۱ را خوب شروع کردیم اما با افزایش نرخ ارز در نیمه دوم سال نرخ تورم حاصله راضی کننده نبود. اگر چه پیش بینیهای تورمهای غیر متعارف در اقتصاد ایران نیز محقق نشد.
وی ادامه داد: رشد متغیرهای حقیقی یا غیر پولی اقتصاد ایران در بهار ۱۴۰۱ پایین و نامناسب بود اما هر چه به پایان سال نزدیک شدیم روند رشد بهتر شد و نهایتاً نرخ رشد ۴ درصدی محقق شد که نشان داد همچنان موتورهای رشد برای تحقق رشدهای بالاتر هدف از سوخت لازم برخوردار نیست.
عالیترین مقام بانک مرکزی در خصوص نرخ رشد سال ۱۴۰۱ ضمن اشاره به ۳ مشخصه یادآور شد: رشد حاصله به صورت ناموزون در بخشهای مختلف اقتصادی محقق شد و بخشهای نفت و صنعت با نرخهای نزدیک به دو ر قمی عملکردی قابل ملاحظه و بخشهای خدمات و کشاورزی عملکردی غیر قابل قبول داشتند.
رئیس کل بانک مرکزی افزود: برای اولین بار پس از سالها تجربه نرخهای رشد منفی و یا پایین در تشکیل سرمایه ثابت ناخالص از نرخ رشد ۶.۷ درصد برخوردار شدیم. این نرخ در زیر بخش ماشین آلات معادل ۱۵.۴ درصد بود. یکی از دلایل آن رویکرد حمایت از واردات کالاهای سرمایهای از منظر تأمین ارز و سیاستهای تسهیل کننده برای این کالا بود. این نرخ رشد ما را به تحقق رشد بیشتر در سالهای آتی به دلیل ظرفیت سازی مناسب امیدوار نمود. البته یکی از دیگر دلایل آن نیز افزایش منابع ارزی کشور به دلیل رشد قابل توجه تراز تجاری بود.
دکتر فرزین با بیان اینکه سال ۱۴۰۲ در حوزه متغیرهای پولی و به ویژه تورم با اعداد تورم بالا در فروردین و اردیبهشت آغاز شد، گفت: از این ماه به بعد با اتخاذ سیاستهای تثبیت، در بازارهای مالی آرامش برقرار شد و تورم نقطه به نقطه تاکنون نزدیک به ۱۴ واحد درصد کاهش یافته است.
به گفته وی آمار جدید اداره حسابهای اقتصادی بانک مرکزی درخصوص رشد اقتصادی بهار سال ۱۴۰۲ بیانگر تحقق رشد ۶.۲ درصد در کل اقتصاد و ۵.۲ درصد برای بخش غیرنفتی است. که این نرخها بیش از ۳ برابر نرخ رشد در بهار سال ۱۴۰۱ هستند.
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دکتر فرزین با برشمردن ویژگیهای نرخ رشد در بهار سال ۱۴۰۲ عنوان کرد: رشد حاصله در تمام بخشهای اقتصادی نسبت به بهار ۱۴۰۱ بیشتر است. بخش نفت با نرخ رشد خیره کننده ۱۶.۴ درصد در صدر تمام بخشها بوده است.
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رئیس کل بانک مرکزی تأکید کرد: نرخ رشد تشکیل سرمایه که در بهار سال قبل به دلیل وضعیت نامناسب بخش ساختمان منفی بوده در بهار امسال با مثبت شدن بخش ساختمان عدد کل نیز مثبت شده و از رشد ۲ درصدی برخوردار شده است.
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عالیترین مقام بانک مرکزی با بیان اینکه در خصوص آمار رشد تابستان باید منتظر آمار بانک مرکزی در پاییز بود، تصریح کرد: بر اساس شواهد آماری موردی بخشها میتوان این جمع بندی را از وضعیت تابستان ارائه کرد. بر اساس صورتهای مالی شرکتهای بورسی که ۶۰ درصد ارزش محصول کارگاههای بزرگ صنعتی را نشان میدهد حاکی از آن است که رشد تولید در تیر ماه ۶.۷ و مرداد ماه ۹.۲ درصد بوده است. بالاترین رشد متعلق به محصولات فلزی (۴۵.۷)، خودرو و قطعات (۲۵.۹) و صنایع دارویی (۲۳.۹) در مردادماه بوده است.
وی ادامه داد: موجودی انبار صنایع در مرداد ماه ۸ درصد کاهش یافته است. همزمانی رشد مثبت تولید با رشد منفی انبار نشانگر آن است که عوامل عرضه و تقاضا به طور همزمان در حال تقویت رشد هستند.
دکتر فرزین با بیان اینکه همچنان رشد تولید کالاهای سرمایهای دو رقمی است، یادآور شد: این رقم معادل ۱۵.۹ درصد است و از کالاهای سرمایهای و واسطهای رشد سریعتری دارد.
رئیس کل بانک مرکزی تأکید کرد: شواهد آماری نشان میدهد که بخش کشاورزی نیز در تابستان از وضعیت بسیار خوبی برخوردار بوده است. خرید بیش از ۱۰ میلیون تن گندم از کشاورزان یکی از علائم آن است. در بخش خدمات نیز تکانه مغایر اساسی در این فصل وجود نداشته است. البته هنوز در خصوص قضاوت نهایی زود است.
وی در پایان در خصوص وضعیت اقتصاد کلان کشور گفت: با نرخهای حاصله در سالهای اخیر و به ویژه در سال جاری میتوان اینگونه بیان کرد که فشارهای اقتصادی ناشی از تحریم مدیریت شده و در حال برگشت به روند بلند مدت متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی هستیم.
دکتر فرزین خاطرنشان کرد: عملکرد بخش حقیقی از اسمی بهتر است. دلیل اصلی آن نیز وجود حبابهای ناشی از انتظارات تورمی در جامعه است که با کاهش نرخ رشد نقدینگی و تورم و گشایش توسعه روابط خارجی امیدوار به شتاب در بهبود آن هستیم.
لینک مطلب:
https://www.eranico.com/fa/content/169847